Following are expected trading ranges and outlook for USD/JPY today:

USD/JPY - to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting nearly 4-month low of 78.48 on EBS overnight. Undermined by flows to safe-haven yen, unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid heightened investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 8.05% to 19.87; DJIA down 0.47%, Nasdaq off 0.74%) as euro-zone sovereign debt worries fester; weaker USD sentiment after minutes of FOMC meeting showed members discussed further monetary stimulus; unexpected 15.1% surge in U.S. trade deficit to $50.23 billion in May from $43.63 billion in April (vs $44.5 billion forecast); 3.2-point drop in U.S. IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 41.4 in July from June's 44.6; uncertainty over raising of U.S. debt ceiling by Aug. 2 deadline. USD/JPY also undermined by Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields. But USD/JPY losses tempered by USD demand for Japan import settlements; expectations of Japan MOF JPY-selling intervention. Yen crosses also vulnerable to 0200 GMT China data, including 2Q GDP, June retail sales, fixed assets investment, industrial output.

Other data: 0430 GMT Japan May revised retail sales, revised industrial production, 0500 GMT July BOJ monthly report, 1230 GMT U.S. June import & export price indexes, 1400 GMT Fed Chairman Bernanke presents Monetary Policy Report to U.S. House Financial Services Committee.

USD/JPY daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish; 5-day moving average staged bearish crossover against 15-day MA.

Support at 78.48 (yesterday's low, roughly matching 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of advance from March 17 record low of 76.25 to April 6 high of 85.53); breach would expose downside to 76.25, then psychological round-numbered levels of 76.00 and 75.00.

Resistance at 79.86 (hourly chart); breach would temper near-term negative outlook, exposing upside to 80.38 (yesterday's high), then 80.83 (Monday's high), 81.49-81.51 (Friday's high, near 100-day moving average) and 81.77 (May 31 high).