Hedging Against US Default? Sell 30-Yr Treasury
Dow Jones via eFXnews
The long bond has been the whipping boy amid the political impasse. While its price bounces off session lows, it is still underperforming other maturities.
A popular strategy to hedge against default is to sell 30-yr and buy short-dated notes, such as Tbills and 2-yr notes. That is because short-dated Treasurys are more liquid and more insulated from any selloff in Treasurys on default or cut in US triple-A rating.
Still, the selling in 30-yr is moderate--reflecting the consensus in the markets that a default is still a very low probability event.
In recent trade, the 30-yr bond's yield is 2.7 bps higher to yield 4.275%
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