FOREX FOCUS: Swiss Franc's Safe Haven Status Unchanged By SNB

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All credit to the Swiss National Bank for creative management.

But its plans to introduce what is essentially quantitative easing to Switzerland won't stop the Swiss franc from being a safe haven.

Nor will it make market intervention to halt the Swiss franc's rise any more likely.

Of course, the SNB's surprise announcement to increase money market liquidity and lower its 3-month Libor rate as close to zero as possible, has had the desired effect for now.

The Swiss franc has fallen sharply against the euro, the dollar as well as the yen, as the market digests the impact of the sudden Swiss move.

But there are several reasons why the policy easing won't work.

Japan has already tried this trick and it hasn't worked.

For years the country has poured liquidity into its money markets in an effort to boost its flailing economy. However, the yen--which acts like a safe haven very much like the Swiss franc--has continued to rise, posing a continued threat to the Japanese recovery.

Just before the SNB made its announcement in Switzerland, Japanese officials were once again out and about in Tokyo warning markets that they are watching the yen carefully.

However, like the Swiss, the Japanese are loathe to intervene in the markets as past experience has shown this seldom works.

In fact, the SNB is still counting the cost of its last exercise with recent figures showing the bank suffered a 21 billion Swiss francs ($27 billion) loss in 2010 and another CHF11 billion loss in the first half of this year.

This is hardly going down well with the bank's shareholders and means the SNB is pretty unlikely to back up lower rates with more Swiss franc sales.

But there is another reason why the SNB won't be intervening. That is because the bank knows such an effort would be futile under current market conditions.

As global growth slows and as the euro zone debt crisis enters a new and possibly more dangerous phase, safe haven flows into the Swiss franc are more likely to intensify than anything else.

The U.S. government may have reached a compromise debt deal that removes the immediate threat of a U.S. default. But, with the threat of a credit downgrade only diminished, not removed, and with further quantitative easing in the U.S. more likely now than it was before, investor confidence in the global recovery is fading fast.

Of equal importance for the Swiss franc is the continued prospect of a debt default by a euro zone country. Another emergency bail out for Greece, put together only two weeks ago, is already being seen as inadequate to prevent contagion to the much larger economies of Spain and Italy.

As the funding costs of these two countries rise to new highs and as the outlook for euro zone growth is downgraded, there is a high risk that one or both of these countries will also need a bail out, despite the lack of funds or political will to provide it.

So while, the SNB's announcement may have made the safe-have yen, as well as gold for that matter, a little more attractive for now, flows will probably return to push the Swiss franc back up again.

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