CHARTING FOREX: Dollar Biased Down Vs Aussie, Kiwi, Swissie, Loonie This Week
Following is technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
USD/JPY 1st support - 77.28 (minor) 1st resistance - 78.29 (minor) 2nd support - 77.00 (minor) 2nd resistance - 79.10 (minor)
USD/JPY is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and rising. Resistance is at Tuesday's high of 78.29; a breach would target the Nov. 11 high of 79.10. An extension of the rise would target the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 79.26, and then the Oct. 31 spike high of 79.55. Support is at Wednesday's low of 77.28; a breach would target the Nov. 24 low of 77.00, and then the Nov. 18 low of 76.57. An extension of the fall would target 75.31, the record low hit on Oct. 31, and then the psychological 75.00 level. USD/JPY is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead between 75.31 and 79.55 as the 15-week moving average is meandering sideways. A rise above 79.55 would be medium-term positive, targeting the May 19 high of 82.23, and then 85.24, the projected top of the descending channel formed with the April 2009 high of 101.45 and the Nov. 2009 low of 84.81 on the weekly chart. But a drop below 75.31 would tilt the medium-term outlook toward negative, exposing the downside to the base of the channel, coming in now at 72.41.
EUR/USD 1st support - 1.3259 (minor) 1st resistance - 1.3550 (minor) 2nd support - 1.3212 (minor) 2nd resistance - 1.3615 (minor)
EUR/USD is likely to consolidate this week as long as the pair stays below Friday's high of 1.3550. The daily chart is mixed as the MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, but a bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed Friday. A rise above 1.3550 would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the Nov. 18 high of 1.3615, near the 55-day moving average. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 14 high of 1.3815. Support is at Wednesday's low of 1.3259, then at the Nov. 25 low of 1.3212; a breach would be near-term negative, targeting the Oct. 4 swing low of 1.3146, and then the psychological 1.3000 line. EUR/USD is consolidating its negative medium-term trend. A drop below 1.3146 would suggest a resumption of the medium-term downtrend, targeting the Jan. 10 reaction low of 1.2860; a breach would open the way down to the Aug. 24, 2010 low of 1.2584 in the weeks ahead.
AUD/USD 1st support - 1.0146 (minor) 1st resistance - 1.0330 (minor) 2nd support - 1.0091 (minor) 2nd resistance - 1.0350 (minor)
AUD/USD is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, although the latter is at the overbought level. Resistance is at Wednesday's high of 1.0330, which roughly matches the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the decline from the Oct. 27 high of 1.0752 to the Nov. 23 low of 0.9659; a breach would target the Nov. 14 high of 1.0350, and then the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0411. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 3 high of 1.0446. Support is at Thursday's low of 1.0146; a breach would expose the downside to the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0091, and then to Wednesday's low of 0.9938. An extension of the fall would target Tuesday's low of 0.9859, and then the Nov. 23 reaction low of 0.9659. AUD/USD is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead between the Oct. 4 low of 0.9386 and the Oct. 27 high of 1.0752. A drop below 0.9386 would tilt the medium-term outlook toward negative, targeting the psychological 0.9000 line, and then the Aug. 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.8769.
NZD/USD 1st support - 0.7718 (minor) 1st resistance - 0.7853 (minor) 2nd support - 0.7572 (minor) 2nd resistance - 0.7930 (minor)
NZD/USD is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, although the latter is near the overbought level. Resistance is at the Nov. 15 high of 0.7853; a breach would target the Nov. 14 high of 0.7930, and then the Nov. 7 minor reaction high of 0.7997 which is currently near the 200-day moving average. An extension of the rise would target the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 0.8078, and then the Oct. 28 reaction high of 0.8241. Support is at Thursday's low of 0.7718; a breach would expose the downside to Wednesday's low of 0.7572, and then to Tuesday's low of 0.7506. An extension of the fall would target the Nov. 25 reaction low of 0.7367. NZD/USD is consolidating its negative medium-term trend. The five- and 15-week moving averages are falling, but the weekly stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. A drop below 0.7367 would suggest a resumption of the medium-term downtrend, targeting the March 17 swing low of 0.7113, and then the Aug. 25, 2010 reaction low of 0.6944 in the weeks ahead.
GBP/USD 1st support - 1.5421 (minor) 1st resistance - 1.5779 (minor) 2nd support - 1.5270 (moderate) 2nd resistance - 1.5888 (minor)
GBP/USD is likely to consolidate this week between the Nov. 25 low of 1.5421 and Wednesday's high of 1.5779. The daily chart is mixed as the stochastic measure is bullish, but the MACD indicator is still in bearish mode. A rise above 1.5779 would tilt the near-term outlook positive, targeting the Nov. 18 high of 1.5888, and then the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 1.5956. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 11 high of 1.6092, which is currently near the 200-day moving average. But a drop below 1.5421 would be near-term negative, opening the way down to the Oct. 6 swing low of 1.5270. An extension of the fall would target the July 21, 2010 low of 1.5123, and then the psychological 1.5000 line. GBP/USD is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead between 1.5270 and the Oct. 31 high of 1.6165. A drop below 1.5270 would tilt the medium-term outlook toward negative, targeting the psychological 1.5000 line, and then the May 20, 2010 swing low of 1.4230.
USD/CHF 1st support - 0.9061 (minor) 1st resistance - 0.9250 (minor) 2nd support - 0.9030 (minor) 2nd resistance - 0.9340 (moderate)
USD/CHF is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at Wednesday's low of 0.9061; a breach would target the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 0.9030, and then the Nov. 11 low of 0.8950. An extension of the fall would target the Nov. 9 low of 0.8919, and then the Nov. 3 low of 0.8758. Resistance is at Wednesday's high of 0.9250; a breach would target the 0.9330-0.9340 band, defined by the Nov. 25 high and the April 1 high, and then the March 9 minor reaction high of 0.9369. An extension of the rise would target the Feb. 22 high of 0.9505. USD/CHF is consolidating its positive medium-term trend. The five- and 15-week moving averages are rising, but the weekly stochastic measure is at the overbought level. A rise above 0.9340 would suggest a resumption of the medium-term uptrend, targeting the Jan. 11 reaction high of 0.9785 in the weeks ahead.
USD/CAD 1st support - 1.0073 (minor) 1st resistance - 1.0223 (minor) 2nd support - 1.0052 (minor) 2nd resistance - 1.0362 (minor)
USD/CAD is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish, although the latter is near the oversold level. Support is at the Nov. 8 low of 1.0073; a breach would target the Nov. 3 low of 1.0052, and then the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0016. An extension of the fall would target the Oct. 27 reaction low of 0.9888. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 1.0223, currently matching the 55-day moving average; a breach would expose the upside to Wednesday's high of 1.0362, and then to the Nov. 25 reaction high of 1.0523. An extension of the rise would target the Oct. 4 swing high of 1.0657. USD/CAD is likely to consolidate in the weeks ahead between 0.9888 and 1.0657. A rise above 1.0657 would turn the medium-term outlook positive, targeting the 1.0851-1.0869 resistance band, defined by the May 25, 2010 high and the Nov. 2, 2009 high; and then the Sept. 28, 2009 high of 1.0992.



