Speculators Pile Into Bets Against Euro; Most Since 2007 - CFTC

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Traders amassed a net $24.8 billion in bets that the euro will continue to weaken, the largest such position since at least 2007, as of Jan. 10, government data showed Friday.

The drama playing out in the euro zone, where leaders are rushing to resolve sovereign-debt issues that threaten to throw the region into recession, has wounded the euro, which traded as low as $1.26 Friday. Speculators held a net 155,195 contracts against the currency, up 9% from the prior week, according to the weekly report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on the commitments of traders.

"Sentiment is fairly negative," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto. She noted that the rate of growth in gross short positions against the euro had slowed recently, which could spark upward pressure on the euro as traders cover their short positions.

The new record in pessimistic euro bets corresponded with a 10% increase in bets that the dollar will appreciate, a net total of $17 billion. As the euro has cratered over the last few months, the dollar has been the beneficiary as investors gamble that the U.S. economy has a better outlook than that of Europe.

The market held a net $9.7 billion worth of bets that the yen will rise in value, despite the Japanese government's efforts to keep it from rising further. That represents 59,657 contracts, up 5% from the previous week.

For the Swiss franc, traders stuck to the view that it will fall, but were less certain, with a 4% smaller position against the currency worth a net $1.6 billion, or 12,097 contracts.

Investors were twice as confident about the New Zealand dollar's likelihood of appreciating, doubling their bets that it will rise, to a net $399 million. They were also more optimistic about the Australian dollar, boosting their bets by 14%, to a net $5.5 billion.

Negative bets against the Canadian dollar rose by 22%, to $2.8 billion, and against the British pound rose by 11%, to $3.5 billion.

The CFTC's weekly report shows speculative investors' positions in major currencies held against the dollar. It viewed the markets as of Tuesday.

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