Following are expected trading ranges and outlook for EUR/USD today:

EUR/USD - to trade with risks skewed lower. Undermined by increased fears of a full-scale Greek default as debt restructuring talks stalled after official creditors called for lower average interest rate of 3.5% on new bonds when private bondholders had already agreed on a 4% coupon. EUR/USD also weighed by worries over Europe's economic slowdown; concerns that Portugal will follow similar path to Greece as 10-year Portuguese yield stays elevated above 14%. But EUR/USD losses tempered by sovereign demand for euro. Eyes on meeting of euro-zone finance ministers in Brussels today to debate a fiscal treaty.

Other focus: 1130 GMT IMF's Lagarde speech in Berlin, 1500 GMT euro-zone January flash consumer confidence indicator.

EUR/USD daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; 5-day moving average staged bullish crossover against 15-day MA.

Support at 1.2854 (hourly chart), then at 1.2839 (Thursday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2732 (Wednesday's low), then 1.2648 (Tuesday's low), 1.2624 (Jan. 13 16-month low, matching Aug. 31, 2010 low), 1.2588 (Aug. 24, 2010 reaction low) and 1.2522 (July 12, 2010 low).

Resistance at 1.2951 (hourly chart), then at 1.2986 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.3077 (Jan. 3 reaction high), then 1.3095 (Dec. 23 high), 1.3120 (Dec. 22 high) and 1.3199 (Dec. 21 high).