EUR/USD Daily Asia Outlook 02/03

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Following are expected trading ranges and outlook for EUR/USD today:

Intermediate Range Larger Range
1.3085-1.3197 1.3026-1.3218

 

EUR/USD - to be range-bound as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. EUR/USD supported by subdued investor risk aversion; Chinese PM Wen Jiabao reportedly said his country is considering how to be more deeply involved with the euro-zone's bailout funds in resolving Europe's debt crisis as German Chancellor Merkel visits Beijing; sovereign demand for euro. But EUR/USD topside limited by persistent worries over Greece as its government continues to thrash out a deal with its private creditors (parties were said to have been on verge of agreement numerous times over the past week but talks still going on); improved USD sentiment; positions adjustment before weekend.

Other data focus: 0855 GMT German January services PMI, 0900 GMT euro-zone January services PMI, 1000 GMT euro-zone December retail sales.

EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, stochastics reverting to bullish mode at overbought; but 5-day moving average meandering sideways, inside-day-range pattern completed yesterday.

Resistance at 1.3197 (yesterday's high), then at 1.3218 (Wednesday's high) and 1.3235 (Jan. 27 6-week high); breach would target 1.3244 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of 1.4248-1.2624 Oct. 27-Jan. 16 decline), then 1.3345 (100-day moving average), 1.3436 (50% correction level) and 1.3459 (Dec. 8 high).

Support at 1.3085 (yesterday's low), then at 1.3026 (Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2931 (Jan. 25 low), then 1.2854 (Jan. 23 low), 1.2839 (Jan. 19 low), 1.2732 (Jan. 18 low) and 1.2648 (Jan. 17 low).

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