Citi is downbeat on US non-farm payrolls, only expecting a 100,000 rise compared to a consensus of 140,000.

While the central range of forecasts stands between 140,000 and 175,000, Citi says consensus probably overstates the degree to which investors are positioned for a weaker number.

Citi sees risks skewed in favor of a larger response to a negative shock. A good outcome would only reinforce the recent trend of good US data, while a weak payrolls number could signal that expectations have begun to adjust, says Citi.