Goldman Sachs Sees No Fresh Actions From ECB Thursday

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Expect a bland and unexciting Thursday from the ECB. Economists at Goldman expect no cut in the policy rate nor announcement of fresh liquidity measures.

They say the ECB will adopt a wait-and-see approach given that many data since their last meeting have "generally come in better than expected" while financial market tensions have also eased in a significant way since early January.

Although there remains a high degree of uncertainty, "we don't think the Governing Council will want to commit to additional measures at this juncture, in part because of the forthcoming February 3-year LTRO," they say.

"The central bank is therefore likely to restrict itself to some very general statements about the ECB's willingness to counter any system-wide liquidity problems should they arise."

In a survey for Dow Jones Newswires, 96% of reporting financial institutions predict the ECB will keep its main rate on hold Thursday. And 64% still see the main rate at 1% by the end of the first quarter of this year.

Lower interest rates make it cheaper for households and enterprises to borrow money and can serve as a boost to economic output.

More money in the economy, though, adds to inflationary pressure. While inflation is still above the ECB's goal of just below 2%, it is expected to fall back to target this year. This would give the ECB wiggle room if needed to cut rates further.

International indicators are also encouraging. On Friday, U.S. labor-market data showed a strong gain in employment, while the unemployment rate reached a three-year low. If the recovery momentum across the pond continues, it could support business confidence and buoy equity indexes in Europe.

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