• Cable falls to 1.2525 as USD strengthens before two-day Fed meeting starts

• 1.2525 is lowest level since Monday's 1.2569 peak (high since April 11)

• Bids expected around 1.2500 (1.2497 was Monday's low, in early Asian trade)

• CFTC data showed net GBP position recently flipped from long to short

• BoE rate decision next week: HSBC expects 8-1 hold vote again (as per March)

• UK local elections this week (Thursday); PM Sunak's Tories face big losses

• EUR/USD's failure earlier in April under 1.0611 Fibo led to a rebound

• 1.0611 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 1.0448-1.1139 (Oct-Dec) EBS rise

• Despite that failure, negative 14-day momentum highlights a bearish market

• The negative alignment of the tenkan and kijun lines also points to a drop

• We are short at 1.0725 in anticipation of a slump to our 1.0525 target

• EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N3H20HM

• Speculators pile into the dollar for two major reasons nL1N3H10IN

• AUD/USD reverses Mon gains, extends pullback to 0.6522

• Dipping under 200 DMA support 0.6524, spooking longs

• More AUD bulls may soon bail, sending it toward 0.6500

• 50% retracement at 0.6503 may be next barrier to fall

• Australia retail sales miss dented AUD nL1N3H303M

• DXY bounces as USD/JPY recovers, but UST yields soft

• For more click on FXBUZ

• AUD/USD opened +0.51% at 0.6566 as fall in USD/JPY weighed on the greenback nL1N3H20OC

• AUD/USD came under light pressure early Asia as USD clawed back some ground

• It traded down to 0.6550/55 before fall extended following Aus retail sales

• Aus retail sales came in much worse than expected to complicate RBA outlook nL1N3H303M

• China PMI came out at same time with services PMI undershooting expectations nAZN1P5257

• AUD/USD fell to 0.6532 and is around 0.6535 into the afternoon

• Support is at the 200-day MA at 0.6524 and the 21-day MA at 0.6511

• Resistance is at 50% of Dec-April fall @ 0.6616 with sellers ahead of 0.6600

• A close below 0.6510 would suggest a short-term top is in place at 0.6585/90

• For more click on FXBUZ

Synopsis:

TD Securities anticipates fluctuating risks for the USD in the short term due to conflicting economic drivers but sees a trend toward a stronger USD through early 2025. The forecast is based on a blend of growth and policy dynamics, with inflation divergence playing a significant role.

Key Points:

• Renewed FX Market Interest: Recent developments have reignited investor interest in the forex market as a platform for expressing macroeconomic and geopolitical views. However, the presence of conflicting drivers increases the complexity of market analysis.

• Upgraded USD Outlook: TD has revised its outlook on the USD, expecting further gains into early 2025. This revised forecast is informed by a combination of growth and policy shocks. In particular, inflationary pressures and the divergence in interest rates are pivotal factors.

• Inflation and Rate Divergence: The divergence in inflation rates, particularly between the US and other regions, is becoming a dominant force. Although global growth rates are converging, which generally counters USD strength, the U.S.'s pronounced inflation dynamics are starting to have a more substantial impact.

• Volatility and Market Sensitivity: The current low volatility in FX markets is viewed as unsustainable, particularly given the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and inconsistent inflation data. These conditions are tightening financial conditions, and markets are likely to become more reactive.

• Central Bank Dilemmas: The divergence in inflation rates poses a significant challenge, compelling central banks to make tough choices between supporting growth and controlling inflation. This situation could lead to increased market disruptions and affect currency valuations, particularly the USD.

Conclusion:

TD Securities' analysis suggests a complex and volatile period ahead for the USD, with potential for both short-term risks and medium-term gains.

• Up 0.25% after the Tokyo fix, as the dust settles on Monday's volatility

• We have no official confirmation of BOJ intervention, but it is expected

• Stronger than forecast Japanese factory output but softer retail sales

• The mixed data provides no strong reason for the BOJ to change policy

• Charts: 21-day Bollinger Bands, 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages head north

• Daily charts remain positive - a close below 154.01 21 DMA would be bearish

• Horizontal Tenkan and Kijun lines suggest a period of consolidation

• 154.40 early Europe low and New York's 156.88 high first support/resistance

For more click on FXBUZ

• USD/CNH perks up with USD/JPY bounce, last 7.2439 from 7.2420

• May reclaim 61.8% Fibo 7.2461 if USD/JPY keeps rising

• That will avoid Bollinger downtrend channel at 7.2450

• PBOC fix lowered three pips to 7.1063; deviation -1400 pips

• China official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs due soon

• Both expected to show a slower pace of expansion in Apr

• For more click on FXBUZ

• -0.05% in early Asia after closing up 0.27% with the U.S. dollar off 0.28%

• Yields spreads were steady, 10yr bund -5bp 2.526% and 10yr UST -5bp 4.612%

• German inflation edged higher to 2.4% ahead of EZ CPI later today, poll 2.4%

• Charts - 5, 10, and 21-day moving averages coil, 21-day Bollinger bands slip

• Daily momentum studies rise - the downtrend has stalled - neutral signals

• 1.0745 Fibo resistance, 0.382% of the March/April fall capped on the close

• Close above 1.0745 would target a test of the 1.0790 0.5% retracement

• 1.0690 - 1.0729 New York range is initial support and resistance

• 1.0700 652mln and 1.0750 1.046BLN are the close strikes for April 30th

  For more click on FXBUZ

• AUD/USD opens +0.51% after US yields eased and USD broadly weakened nL1N3H21T3

• A wild ride in USD/JPY on intervention rumours dominated FX action nL1N3H20OC

• AUD benefited from a rise in risk assets as copper continued surge higher nL1N3H22GOnL1N3H20JQ

• Support is at the 200-day MA at 0.6524 and 21-day MA at 0.6511

• Resistance is at 50% of Dec-April fall at 0.6616 and April 9 high at 0.6644

• Aus March retail sales today may cause some movement, but unlikely to impact

• China Mfg PMI for April is out today with market expecting 50.3

• Bias is for higher, but with FOMC looming, movements may be limited

• For more click on FXBUZ

• USD/JPY trades a cautious 156.08-156.28 range Tue as Japan markets reopen

• Consolidation likely after a wild 160.24-154.40 range Mon in thin markets

• Follows suspected yen-buying intervention by Japan for 1st time in 18 months

• Authorities more concerned with speed of USD rise rather than direction

• GRAPHIC-Five charts on the Japanese yen's decades-long drop

• Sticky U.S. inflation, yawning U.S.-Japan yield differentials support USD

• Fed rate decision Wed, U.S. payrolls Friday key for direction

• Fed in a holding pattern as inflation delays approach to any soft landing

• Japan industrial output, unemployment rate, retail sales due Tuesday

• Support 155.00-10, 154.40-50, resistance 157.00-20, 157.80

• For more click on FXBUZ

Synopsis:

Société Générale assesses the upcoming week's key economic data releases, predicting potential currency movements based on expected regional economic performances. The focus is on the potential for upside surprises in the Eurozone and how they could influence EUR/USD, along with implications for other currency pairs like AUD/USD and USD/NOK.

Key Points:

• Recent Market Movements: Following a significant drop in EUR/USD due to U.S. CPI data two weeks ago, the currency pair has recovered approximately half of its losses. This recovery sets the stage for a potentially volatile week given several high-profile economic reports due in the coming days.

• Influence of Economic Surprises: SocGen suggests that positive surprises in European economic data could have a more pronounced effect on the markets compared to strong U.S. data, given current expectations. Conversely, any unexpected weakness in U.S. data might weigh more heavily than sluggish European results.

• FOMC Meeting Expectations: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain a cautious tone regarding rate cuts. The upcoming payroll data is anticipated to affirm a tight U.S. labor market unless it significantly underperforms expectations.

• Potential for European Data Surprises: There is notable anticipation for the upcoming Eurozone CPI and GDP data, with SocGen predicting potential upside surprises (CPI at 2.5% and GDP growth at 0.3% quarter-over-quarter). Positive results here could bolster the EUR/USD, especially if U.S. data does not surpass expectations markedly.

• Implications for Other Currencies: Positive developments in risk sentiment combined with a stable or strengthening euro could drive AUD/USD towards 0.68 and push USD/NOK down to 10.60.

Conclusion:

This week's array of critical economic data releases from both the U.S. and Europe is poised to play a significant role in shaping currency market dynamics. SocGen highlights the potential for significant currency movements based on regional economic performances and overall market sentiment.

• USD/JPY traders cogitate on dive following a likely 1990 high MoF defense

• The 160.245-154.40 plunge came amid thin holiday and overbought conditions

• Japan FX policy diplomat Kanda all but confirmed the intervention

• He said more could come any time in "speculative, rapid and abnormal" mkt

• The 156.88 recovery high ran into resistance by the daily tenkan

• Another brief slide was seen from there in a nervous market pre-month-end

• And before ADP, JOLTS and Fed on Wed and Friday's employment report

• Though intervention could cap extremely O/B prices by 1990's 160.35 peak

• A sustained selloff would need softening US data and renewed Fed cut pricing

• The BoJ punted last week, putting supporting yen firmly on the MoF's back

• Q3, Q4 2023 corrections were caught by 55-DMA, weekly cloud top

• Those supports are currently at 146.08/25 and a bit out of reached

• At least w/o more interventions and or a huge dovish NFP miss on Friday

For more click on FXBUZ

• Cable through its 200-DMA (1.2556) emboldening bulls

• Daily close sets up potential move to 1.27 (pre-US CPI level)

• EUR/GBP heavy, but 0.85 likely to put a floor under the cross

• Slew of U.S. data to drive price action (QRA, Fed, NFP)

• COMMENT-Sterling's rebound faces key test as Fed, NFP awaits nL1N3H21QC

For more click on FXBUZ

• NY opened near 1.0720, selling took hold as US$ was bid in early NY

• 1.06905 traded on EBS, buyers emerged, pair neared 1.0725 late

• Lower US yields US10YT=RR, USD/CNH drop to 7.2350 (D3) helped buoy

• Equity ESv1 gains & gold XAU= turning positive helped weigh on US$

• EUR/USD held below the 21-DMA, 50% Fib of 1.0885-1.0602 late in the day

• Techs are mixed; daily RSI rising but monthly RSI is falling

• China April NBS mfg, non-mfg & Caixin mfg PMIs are data risk in Asia

• EZ April HICP, Q1 GDP & US Q1 employment costs a risks in Europe, NY

• For more click on FXBUZ

Synopsis:

ANZ projects potential downside risks for the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) based on recent employment trends and weak April PMI data. Meanwhile, the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could provide modest support for the USD, though much of the hawkish sentiment may already be priced in.

Key Points:

• Weakening Employment Indicators: ANZ points out discrepancies in U.S. employment data, with the household survey suggesting weaker conditions than the headline nonfarm payrolls figures. The April Flash PMIs employment composite index dipped below 50, marking the lowest point since June 2020 and indicating significant softening in employment, which could foreshadow broader economic slowdowns.

• PMIs and Payroll Trajectory: While PMIs have not consistently predicted monthly payroll outcomes, ANZ notes that they generally track the broader trends in employment changes. The recent sharp decline in the employment index is particularly concerning as it might signal a forthcoming downturn in payroll numbers.

• Upcoming Employment Data: Further insights will be required to confirm these trends, with additional data points such as the Conference Board’s job differential gauge anticipated this week. These metrics will be crucial in solidifying expectations for the labor market ahead of the official payroll report.

• FOMC Meeting Outlook: The FOMC's stance appears modestly supportive for the USD, driven by a shift toward more hawkish commentary from Fed officials during the pre-meeting blackout period. However, ANZ suggests that market pricing likely already reflects expectations for any hawkish statements from Chair Powell.

• USD Strategy: Given the potential for weaker payroll data and the anticipated impact of the FOMC meeting, ANZ leans towards a softer USD outlook heading into next week’s labor market update.

Conclusion:

With key employment data on the horizon and the FOMC meeting set to take place, ANZ advises caution regarding the USD's position. Investors should prepare for potential volatility in the currency markets, particularly if employment indicators continue to show weakening and if the FOMC's support does not exceed market expectations.

• AUD/USD fell below the 55- & 200-DMAs, buyers emerged, pair turned positive

• The thinning daily cloud was pierced and a 13-session high was set

• Rally off the April 19 daily low has helped generate bullish tech signals

• Monthly RSI diverged on the 5-month low set on April 19 & is now rising

• Daily RSI is rising & not overbought; RSIs imply upward momentum

• Hold above a slew of daily moving averages reinforces bullish signals

• US employment reports, Fed policy meeting are major looming risks

• Should risks be US$ negative AUD/USD longs may target December's high

• For more click on FXBUZ

Synopsis:

ING analyzes the recent sharp movements in USD/JPY, suggesting strong indications of Japanese intervention in the FX market. The bank highlights the rapid market response and the strategic implications for traders, particularly in light of upcoming U.S. economic events.

Key Points:

• Potential Intervention: Early morning trading saw USD/JPY hit the 160.0 mark before experiencing significant volatility, characterized by sharp declines followed by partial recoveries. This pattern, combined with the timing and magnitude of the moves, suggests potential intervention by Japanese authorities.

• Market Response: After touching 160.0, USD/JPY faced a substantial drop to 157.20, with movements exhibiting classic signs of currency intervention such as sudden large shifts and increased trading volume. The timing on a Japanese public holiday may have also amplified the effects due to thinner liquidity.

• Official Comments: Japan's top currency official, Masato Kanda, has not confirmed the intervention, maintaining a stance of "no comment for now." This lack of official confirmation keeps the market on alert for any further clarifications.

• Historical Context and Market Dynamics: The situation mirrors actions from September 2022 when Japan intervened in the market with an estimated $20bn. Following the initial intervention last year, USD/JPY eventually stabilized at levels moderately below those pre-intervention. ING anticipates a similar trajectory could unfold, setting a near-term resistance level for USD/JPY around 156.50 based on past patterns.

• Future Outlook and U.S. Economic Events: With a week full of significant U.S. economic events, including potential signals from the Federal Reserve, the yen could face renewed pressure. Traders may be cautious about driving USD/JPY back to the 160 level, mindful of Japan's possible ongoing intervention strategy and the risks of re-testing the authorities' resolve.

Conclusion:

ING's assessment suggests that the recent volatility in USD/JPY likely indicates an intervention by Japanese authorities, though official confirmation is still pending. Traders are advised to be cautious, particularly given the likelihood of additional U.S. economic developments that could impact the currency pair. The situation remains fluid, with market participants keenly awaiting further signals from Japanese officials and upcoming U.S. data that could influence future movements and intervention strategies in the FX market.

EUR/USD erased most of its gains Monday as longs seem to lack conviction ahead of a slew of U.S. data and Fed risks, which could set the stage for a move below 1.0500.

EUR/USD neared the 50% Fibo of the 1.0885-1.0602 decline then began sliding despite April German CPI indicating inflation remains sticky, which could fuel doubts the ECB will begin a sustained rate cutting cycle.

German-U.S.
2-year yield spreads US2DE2=RR, which EUR/USD is correlated with, actually widened on the session and neared key -202/-205bps support, a break of which could bring out EUR/USD sellers.

Erosion of EUR/USD gains Monday should concern longs as suspected intervention driving USD/JPY sharply lower failed to fuel EUR/USD gains, a potential sign that rally sellers hold the reins.

EUR/USD's rally off the April 16 low might not bolster bulls' confidence since it appears corrective in nature and a bear flag continuation pattern formed on daily charts.
The flag reinforces bearish signs from Friday's daily doji, falling monthly RSI and the pair's inability to hold above the aforementioned Fibo.

Investors are now focused on U.S. employment reports and Fed risks.

Should robust jobs data emerge and the Fed take a hawkish lean, U.S. yields and the dollar may rally, heralding a fresh leg lower for EUR/USD.

For more click on FXBUZ

Synopsis:

MUFG analyzes the recent sharp movements in the yen, suggesting that the overnight volatility may indicate unofficial intervention by Japan to support its currency. This potential intervention comes after significant weakening of the yen, especially following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent policy meeting.

Key Points:

• Yen Volatility and Potential Intervention: The USD/JPY experienced extreme volatility overnight, spiking to a high of 160.17 before dropping back to 155.06. This pattern is reminiscent of the market behavior observed during Japan's last intervention in the foreign exchange market in the autumn of 2022. Japan's top currency official's non-committal response to intervention queries further fuels speculation of government action.

• Lack of Official Confirmation: While there has been no official confirmation of intervention from Japanese authorities, the significant escalation in yen weakening post-BoJ meeting provides a plausible justification for such measures.

• BoJ's Recent Policy Stance: The BoJ's latest policy meeting did not strongly counter the trend of yen weakening, with Governor Ueda not signaling imminent rate hikes nor expressing significant concern over the yen's recent declines. This stance likely contributed to the market's continued bearish outlook on the yen.

• Impact of Yen Weakness on Inflation: The current level of yen depreciation is not deemed sufficient by the BoJ to significantly influence the underlying inflation trend, which would necessitate a shift in monetary tightening strategies.

• Effectiveness of Intervention: According to MUFG, direct intervention in the FX market may at best slow the pace of yen weakening but is unlikely to reverse the trend. The intervention, if confirmed, is seen as a temporary measure to buy time for potential shifts in economic fundamentals that could more sustainably support the yen.

Conclusion:

MUFG posits that recent actions suggestive of FX intervention by Japan are likely aimed at temporarily stemming the yen's decline rather than initiating a long-term reversal. The effectiveness of such measures may be limited unless accompanied by significant changes in Japan's economic fundamentals or monetary policy adjustments.

• AUD/USD hit 0.6522 in Asia, buyers emerged, 0.6587 traded, a 13-session high

• NY opened near 0.6565, pair traded up +0.47% with help from upbeat risk

• USD/CNH fell to 7.2483 (D3), stocks ESv1 & commodities HGv1XAU= gained

• USD/JPY drop to 154.40 (EBS) & US yield US2YT=RR slide helped buoy AUD/USD

• Pair rallied above 55- & 200-DMAs, pierced the daily cloud then pulled back

• Techs are bullish; RSIs rising & long lower wick in place on April candle

• US ADP, JOLTS, weekly claims, payrolls & ISM mfg are data risks this week

• Fed statement, Powell's presser are major event risks for Wednesday

• For more click on FXBUZ

• 1.2509 is low water-mark for cable since its 1.2548 Asian session peak

• 1.2548 is highest level since April 12 (1.2558 was high that day)

• BHP adviser canvassing investor views on improved Anglo bid, sources say

• News of BHP's 31 billion pound offer for Anglo lifted GBP/USD last week

• CFTC data showed net GBP position recently flipped from long to short

• Flip accompanied cable drop to 5-month low of 1.2299 at start of last week

What matters is how long USD/JPY stays down in the wake of suspected FX intervention that has seen the pair dive from 160.24 to 154.20 before rallying toward 156.

How far USD/JPY falls is less important than where the pair ends up, as an inability to hold the pair down will fuel greater demand.
Should USD/JPY exceed the level where BOJ was first suspected to have sold, a big rise could follow that the central bank cannot stop easily, and may fail to hold altogether without help.

The less time USD/JPY stays down, the greater the bullish reaction.
So once intervention begins it must continue, and perhaps grow in intensity if the central bank wishes to suppress USD/JPY at a lower level.

The influence of intervention when USD/JPY is high - as it was above 160 - is much greater than it will be once USD/JPY has dropped.

The bets against the yen will be reduced in the wake of this big drop.
The less wagered against the yen, the less the restraint on its drop.

While Japan's central bank maintains bond purchases, it's effectively fighting without itself for control of the yen.
Because bond buys are bigger, and are being sustained over a much longer period than intervention, their negative influence is greater, driving the yen to a record low in February this year.

For more click on FXBUZ

• Traders have wagered $14.5 billion that yen drops

• This is a much bigger bet than when BOJ intervened in 2022

• USD/JPY dropped from 151.94 in Oct 2022 to 127.22 EBS in Jan 2023

• Many of those short yen are making money

• There is never a bad time to book a profit, this may be a better one

• April 29 action certainly looks like intervention nL1N3H20EQ

• Friday's drop to 1.2549 freed up room for the pound to push higher again

• However, a long upper candle shadow so far today warns of demand fade

• The flat lining 200-day MA provides resistance at 1.2556

• A key 50% Fibo retracement above at 1.2596: taken off 1.2893-1.2299

• Fourteen day momentum is negative but RSI is rising

• On balance still a market but consolidation below 1.2600 likely

  For more click on FXBUZ