IMM Report: 'Considerable Amount Of Uncertainty' For CAD, AUD N-Term

Scotiabank FX Strategy Research comments on the latest IMM report (covering up to Tuesday June 13 and incorporating BoC tone shift but ahead of FOMC, BoE, and BoJ)& were released Friday June 16).

In particular, ScotiaFX notes a similar pattern in AUD and CAD positioning which suggests a 'considerable amount of uncertaint' in their near-term price action.

"Bearish CAD sentiment has softened for a third consecutive week with the net short narrowing a modest $0.3bn w/w to $6.7bn. CAD remains the largest held net short, however details hint to a considerable amount of uncertainty as we note the recent decline in gross positions on both sides.  We note a similar development in AUD, with the net holding close to flat as investors pare gross longs and gross shorts," ScotiaFX notes.

Overall, ScotiaFX notes that this week’s changes in FX positioning were relatively limited, delivering a modest $2.0bn decline in the aggregate USD long to $3.7bn - its lowest level since mid-May 2016.

Source: Scotiabank Research