EUR/USD: Bullish (since 08 Aug 17, 1.2020): Bullish but expect strong resistance near 1.2145.

As highlighted yesterday, the sharp and rapid pull-back from a high of 1.2092 last Friday suggests a quick loss in upward momentum. However, only a clear break of 1.1920 would indicate that the current bullish phase has ended. Until then, another push higher towards 1.2145 is not ruled out but in order to prevent further loss of upward momentum, EUR has to ‘punch’ above 1.2000 within these 1 to 2 days. Positioning wise, the buy level at 1.1970 is hit overnight, stop-loss remains unchanged at 1.1920. 

GBP/USD: Bullish (since 08 Sep 17, 1.3100): Target a move to 1.3265. No change in view, see update from yesterday below. 

We shifted to a bullish stance last Friday and there is no change to the view. The target remains unchanged at 1.3265 but this is a rather strong level and could be out of reach for the next few days. 

AUD/USD: Bullish (since 08 Sep 17, 0.8050): Lower odds for extension to 0.8165.

We highlighted the lower odds for further extension to 0.8165 yesterday as AUD pulled back sharply after exceeding the immediate target of 0.8120 (high of 0.8125 last Friday). From here, a break below 0.8010 would indicate that the current bullish phase has ended and that 0.8125 is a short-term top. This scenario would not be surprising unless AUD can move and stay above 0.8060 by the end of today. 

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 06 Sep 17, 0.7255): In a 0.7170/0.7300 range.  

NZD staged another attempt to move above 0.7300 yesterday but reversed quickly from a high of 0.7295. The recent mild upward pressure has eased. While the current outlook for NZD is still deemed as neutral, it is more likely to trade sideways for now, likely within a broad 0.7170/0.7300 range.

USD/JPY: Shift from bearish to NEUTRAL:  Swift recovery has room to extend higher to 110.10.

The shift to a bearish stance yesterday was untimely as USD extended its swift and strong rebound (from a low of 107.31 last Friday). The rapid price action was unexpected but the swift recovery appears to have room to extend higher to 110.10. At this stage, a sustained move above this level is not expected. On the downside, only a move back below 108.35 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased (minor support at 108.65).

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research