• USD/JPY, JPY crosses bid in Asia with Japanese importers back

• Traditional O-Bon holidays last week "officially" over

• Japan Inc back to business, importers buys into/post-Tokyo fix

• USD/JPY from 147.02 early Asia to 147.58 EBS, easing back a bit now

• EUR/JPY 172.33-59 EBS, holding below 173.00 high Aug 13, 173.85 July 28

• CHF/JPY 182.15 to 182.87 before steadying, resistance around 183.00

• GBP/JPY 199.09 to 200.00, on hold just below 200.52 high Aug 12

• AUD/JPY 95.59-96.15, in recent range between 94.86-97.43 since July 15

• Large option expiries today 94.50-70 total A$981 mln, 95.00 A$753 mln

• Related comments , , , also
EUR/JPY:


CHF/JPY:


GBP/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Little movement in USD/JPY Friday, 147.02-45 EBS range then

• In 146.22-148.17 range established last week, low Thursday, high Tuesday

• Asia so far today 147.02-37, Japanese back from O-Bon holidays last week

• Japanese importer demand seen back in force from this week

• Spot to pivot around tapering hourly Ichimoku cloud? Currently 147.19-40

• 100/200-HMAs 147.47/48 above, 200-DMA 149.27 above, 100-DMA 145.49 below

• Wider range likely still defined by 100/200-DMAs

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials remain in narrowing trend

• On option expiries larger above today, especially from around 148.00

• 147.90-148.00 total $645 mln, 148.40-45 $606 mln, 149.25-50 $1.4 bln

• Smaller expiries at 145.25, 146.00, 146.50 and 147.50

• Related comments , , ,

• And , , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Fed , , US data

• Also on BOJ , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries this week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Steady after closing up 0.2% with the U.S. dollar down 0.35%

• Asking prices for UK homes drop, but July sales hit 5-year high, Rightmove

• The number of homes for sale grew by more than the increase in sales

• There is no further UK data today, so risk appetite and the USD to lead GBP

• Charts - positive momentum studies, as 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages climb

• 21-day Bollinger bands expand - daily chart retains a strong positive bias

• Last week's 1.3590 top then 1.3649, 0.786% of Jul/Aug fall is resistance

• 1.3469/28 10 & 21 DMAs, then the August 7th 1.3346 low are initial support
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• +0.1% after closing up 0.5% as EZ yields climbed, with the US dollar -0.35%

• Europeans back Zelenskiy in Washington as Trump presses for a Ukraine deal

• Ukraine and Russia's deal expectations appear very different - we will see

• Charts - daily momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages edge higher

• 21-day Bollinger bands base of climb - overall a modest positive bias

• Resistance starts at last week's 1.1730 high, then July 7 1.1789 range top

• Thursday's 1.1631 low, then last week's 1.1590 base, are the first supports

• 1.1675 1.194 BLN and 1.1725 851mln are the close Aug 18 strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD finished +0.2% Fri, USD soft on growing U.S. rate cut expectations

• U.S. Jul import prices +0.4% m/m (poll 0.0%), likely impacted by tariffs

• U.S. PPI also rose more than forecast in Jul, traders are ignoring the signs

• AUD support at 0.6483 double bottom, should provide solid base for this week

• Quiet week for data, main focus: Jackson Hole Fed annual policy symposium

• Overnight range Fri 0.65045-225, support 0.6483 0.6420, resistance 0.6625
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP$ held slight gain in NY afternoon, +0.2% at 1.3557, Fri range 1.3573-1.3529

• Thursday post-PPI GBP slide reversed as marts still price 2 Fed cuts in 2025

• Slightly tepid US data keeps Fed cut hopes alive; Powell/J-Hole comments in focus

• Further out Sonia/SOFR rate strip yield slight advantage to UK by YE 2026; see IRPR

• LSEG's IRPR indicates BoE -15bp, Fed -55bp by YE 2025

• GBP% res 1.3573 Fri high, 1.3594 Thurs pre-PPI high, 1.3666 falling upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3521 Thurs post-PPI low, 1.3464 daily cloud base, 1.3443 the 10-DMA

GBP Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1685 after 1.1648 traded ovenright, rally then extended

• Bulls ignored US retail sales, U of Michigan reports which help firm up yields

• Tighter US-DE spreads , US$ selling helped EUR/UD hit 1.1715 on EBS

• EUR/JPY turn to positive territory also helped underpin EUR/USD's rally

• Late day US$ buying emerged, EUR/USD neared 1.1705 late, traded up +0.49%

• Rising RSIs, hold above the daily cloud & a slew of daily MAs are bull signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs sees the digital Euro as a pivotal project for the ECB and EU Commission, addressing payment system fragmentation and potentially setting a global benchmark for retail CBDCs.

Key Points:

• Strategic Role: The digital Euro is central to advancing the Capital Markets Union and unifying fragmented European payment systems.

• Functionality & Access: It would be a free, sovereign-backed digital form of cash usable both online and offline, preserving anonymity.

• Banking Benefits: Could lower transaction costs, cut reliance on non-European payment services (currently 64% market share), and boost banks’ economies of scope.

• Implementation Hurdles: Technical challenges include privacy safeguards and deciding whether to cap individual holdings to protect financial stability.

• Global Leadership Potential: With a workable compromise on access limits, the ECB could establish the digital Euro as the world’s leading retail CBDC model.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs believes the digital Euro could reshape Europe’s payments landscape while setting a global precedent—if accessibility, privacy, and stability concerns are successfully balanced.

• NY opened near 0.6515 after 0.6490 traded overnight, pair neared 0.6505 early

• Dip was bought pair rallied above the daily cloud top and 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• 0.6522 hit after retail sales, U of Michigan data as yields , US$ slumped

• AUD/USD sellers emerged; gold slid towards flat, stocks fell & USD/CNH rallied

• AUD/USD fell back below the cloud top, neared 0.6510, was up only 0.25% late

• Pair also fell below the daily MAs and up trend line from the August 1 daily low
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

JP Morgan maintains its bullish EUR/USD outlook, seeing a test of 1.22 this year as underlying macro and geopolitical drivers remain supportive despite recent market range-trading.

Key Points:

• Fair Value Rising: Model-based EUR/USD fair value has climbed to 1.14 from 1.09 in two months, driven by real yields and other macro factors.

• US Moderation & Fed Risks: Softer US policy stance and concerns over Fed independence seen as underpriced positives for the euro.

• Geopolitical Upside: A Ukraine–Russia ceasefire could add ~2.5% to EUR/USD, though delivery risk remains high.

• Fiscal Impact: EU/German fiscal policy already reflected in pricing, offering limited new upside.

• Historical Perspective: Past episodes show room for further euro strength despite recent gains.

Conclusion:

With fair value trending higher and supportive catalysts still in place, JP Morgan sees EUR/USD’s path toward 1.22 as reasonable in 2025, contingent on sustained US moderation and potential geopolitical breakthroughs.

• Ether extended its drop from the Aug. 14 daily high, traded 4662.25 earlier

• A 3-session low was hit but a bounce ensued, Ether turned positive

• 4666.91 traded before Ether pulled back near 4595.00 early NY, was up +1.40%

• Daily RSI diverged on today's low & a daily doji candle was put in place

• Today's bounce suggests Ether has entered a consolidation phase

• Consolidation gives overbought daily RSI a chance to unwind before the rally resumes

• Rising monthly RSI implies upward momentum & that 2021 yearly high could break
eth


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

ANZ sees the AUD and NZD remaining range-bound in the near term, with the AUD under 0.66 and NZD near 0.60. While Fed rate cut expectations offer some nominal support, global growth headwinds, trade uncertainties, and domestic central bank easing paths limit upside.

Key Points:

AUD Outlook:

• RBA Policy: Recent 25bp cut aligns with ANZ’s view for another in November; Board signals openness to further easing.

• Labour Market: July data showed a 61k rise in full-time jobs, unemployment down to 4.2%, underscoring labour market resilience.

• Market Pricing: November fully priced for a cut; December ~50% priced. Reduced pricing for further cuts could modestly support AUD, particularly vs NZD.

• Capping Factors: AUD/USD likely capped below 0.66 amid global growth concerns, US-China trade risks, and strong net short positioning (CFTC shorts at 108k).

• Relative Performance: AUD likely to underperform EUR, CHF, GBP for the rest of 2025.

NZD Outlook:

• RBNZ Policy: A 25bp cut with dovish tone expected next week; fully priced by markets so unlikely to spark sharp moves.

• Long-Term View: ANZ expects OCR to eventually fall to 2.5% as softer high-frequency data feeds into hard data.

• Near-Term Drivers: Offshore sentiment and USD moves remain key; risk sentiment shifts could push NZD/USD toward 0.62 by year-end.

Conclusion:

Both AUD and NZD face constrained upside in the near term despite broader USD weakness. AUD may lag G10 peers, while NZD remains more reactive to global risk and Fed expectations than domestic policy moves.

• GBP/USD closer to 1.3787, July and 3-year high, but option vols stay heavy

• 1-month expiry implied volatility eyes Feb/Sept lows at 6.5, attractive?

• Low implied vol means less realised vol needed to break-even

• Summer lull helps limit broader FX market volatility and weighs option vol

• GBP/USD risk reversals losing downside vol premium - sub 1-month now neutral

• If they can tilt bullish, it will support vols if GBP/USD keeps climbing

• Above 1.3787 may embolden bulls to challenge big 1.4000 option barriers

• Easier to find value in the FX options market

• FX Options brace for retail sales after PPI shock
GBP/USD FXO implied volatility


GBP/USD option risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Trump-Putin summit will take place at 1900 GMT

• Outcome would be notable for EUR crosses, particularly if a deal is struck

• In the event there is a de-esclation, this would bode well for EUR/CHF

• Would put resistance at 0.9430/50 under pressure

• A break above this zone would open the door for a move to 0.95

• Support at 0.9387/0.9400 (200-day MAs). Bias remains to fade dips
EURCHF daily chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Cable edges higher, bulls look for retest of late July highs (1.3585)

• Should we see a close above 1.3585 this likely opens the door to 1.37

• Pullbacks in the pair so far limited to the 55DMA (1.3506)

• COMMENT-BoE's hawkish repricing has it limits and so does GBP

• U.S. retail sales due 1230GMT. BofA f/c topside surprise

• Focus also on Trump-Putin summit at 1900GMT
GBPUSD daily chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD remains mired in very familiar ranges around 0.6500 pre US data

• Off from 0.6568 peak before Thurs US PPI beat to 0.6483, regains 0.6512 Fri

• Market now wary for Fri's US retail sales, helps to limit latest FX recovery

• FX options show mild demand for downside strikes to hedge a strong surprise

• Implied volatility drop stalls- 1-month regains 8.0 from 7.8 - long term low

• Related comment - FX Options as a macro sentiment compass
AUD=D3

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD slipped 1.1680 to 1.1631 after hot US PPI Thurs, held by 21-dma

• Regains 1.1680 Friday, but bulls cautious before US retail sales data

• Options flag US data caution, but mostly consistent with low FX volatility

• Thick daily cloud 1.1665-1.1447 underpins, resistance Weds 1.1730 peak

• 02 July 1.1830 4-year high is bull target before 1.20 option barriers

• Ukraine talks begin Fri- ceasefire hope is EUR/USD bullish and vice versa

• Biggest FX option strike expiries Fri - 4-billion euros 1.1650-1.1700
EUR=EBS

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/3-pm London Friday August 15

• EUR/USD:1.1600-05 (1.3BLN), 1.1625-30 (950M),1.1650 (1.5BLN)

• 1.1675 (1.4BLN), 1.1700 (1BLN), 1.1725 (340M), 1.1750-60 (1.7BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8000 (300M), 0.8045 (755M)

• EUR/CHF: 0.9350 (250M), 0.9450 (200M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (233M), 0.8620-25 (667M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3500 (325M), 1.3520 (664M), 1.3610 (205M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6490-0.6500 (666M), 0.6525 (883M). NZD/USD: 0.5930 (237M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3745-60 (625M), 1.3850-60 (1.1BLN), 1.38775 (338M)

• USD/JPY: 146.00 (408M), 146.50 (670M), 147.00 (592M), 148.00-10 (648M)

• FX options wrap - Price action and FX volatility signals (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Great Divide Mining fall 7.1% to A$0.39, their lowest level since August 13

• Shares of Adelong Gold fall as much as 20% to A$0.004, their biggest intraday pct loss since July 25

• GDM stock ended 6.7% lower on August 13 after co said that Adelong Gold , co's JV partner, intends to contest approval of the annual programme and budget of their joint venture

• Adelong Gold says on the day that is has issued a Deadlock Notice to GDM, says elements of the proposed plan raise 'serious' concerns for ADG

• YTD, GDM shares up 69.6%, ADG shares down 10%

(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• Up 0.15% at the top of a tight, quiet 1.3529-1.3548 range with the USD -0.1%

• There is no UK data, but a full US schedule into the Trump-Putin meeting

• HSBC plans major global expansion of office, and staff surveillance

• Charts - Thursday's dip had little impact on the positive GBP/USD technicals

• Daily momentum studies head higher, as 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages climb

• 21-day Bollinger bands expand - daily chart retains a strong positive bias

• 1.3643 upper 21-day Bolli, then 1.3649, 0.786% Jul/Aug fall first resistance

• 1.3442/21 10 & 21 DMAs, then the August 7th 1.3346 low are initial support
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Barclays expects a robust July US retail sales print, driven by strong auto sales and a pull-forward in spending from Amazon Prime Day and competing retailer events. Gains may moderate in coming months as household income growth slows.

Key Points:

Retail Sales Drivers:

• Headline: Anticipates a large m/m increase in July retail sales, with auto sales the primary contributor.

• Autos: Light vehicle sales jumped from 15.4mn to 16.4mn saar in July, underpinning headline growth.

• Ex-Autos: Forecast +0.2% m/m.

• Control Group: Sees a second consecutive +0.5% m/m gain, supported by strong credit card spending data, partly offset by weakness in other categories.

Temporary Boost Factors:

• Pull-forward demand from Amazon Prime Day and similar sales events by other retailers in July.

• Barclays warns some of these gains may reverse in August and September as household income growth shows signs of slowing.

Industrial Production Outlook:

• Forecasts -0.1% m/m decline in overall output for July.

• Manufacturing seen down -0.2% m/m due to weak motor vehicle assembly schedules during the month.

Conclusion:

Barclays sees July’s retail sales report as strong but temporary, with autos and seasonal sales events inflating the headline. The control group should post a solid gain, but softer income trends point to payback in later months.

• USD/JPY down from 147.86 early to 147.21 EBS, support eyed pre-147.00

• Hourly Ichimoku kijun comes in at 147.09 currently

• EUR/JPY 172.16 late New York to 171.71 EBS, CHF/JPY 183.04 to 182.29

• GBP/JPY 200.16 in NY to 199.22, AUD/JPY 96.07 early Asia to 95.61

• All down following strong Japan Q2 GDP data, on view BOJ to hike sooner

• Trading thin however, flows few/far between, Japan O-Bon holiday peak

• Plenty of spec position adjustments taking place ahead of the weekend

• Word Japanese importers won't be back in force till next week

• Related comment , also , on Japan GDP
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD remains +5.0% ytd as markets debate U.S. inflation & interest rates

• U.S. PPI rose more than forecast in Jul, creating concern for rate cut bets

• Final demand PPI +0.9% m/m (poll +0.2%) sending UST yields & USD higher

• DXY -10.1% post Trump inauguration, currently trading close to 98.18 55-DMA

• China Jul retail sales 0200 GMT Fri, Reuters poll consensus +4.6% y/y

• U.S. Jul retail sales (poll +0.5% m/m), import prices (poll 0.0%) due Fri

• Range Asia 0.6493-0.65025, support 0.6483 0.6373, resistance 0.6625 0.66875
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Steady after closing down 0.35% with the USD up 0.4%, as UST yields climbed

• Thursday's UK data was more resilient than expected in these turbulent times

• There is no UK data or BoE events - USD and risk appetite will lead sterling

• Charts - Thursday's dip had little impact on the daily GBP/USD technicals

• Daily momentum studies head higher, as 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages climb

• 21-day Bollinger bands expand - daily chart retains a strong positive bias

• 1.3630 upper 21-day Bolli, then 1.3649, 0.786% Jul/Aug fall first resistance

• 1.3415/14 10 & 21 DMAs, then the August 7th 1.3346 low are initial support
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)