EUR/USD: Neutral (since 15 Nov 17, 1.1795): Mild upward pressure has eased, in a 1.1740/1.1940 range.

The mild upward pressure highlighted in recent updates has eased as EUR slipped below the key short-term support at 1.1805 yesterday (low of 1.1799). The neutral phase that started 3 weeks ago remains intact and from here, EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely within a relatively broad 1.1740/1.1940 range.

GBP/USD:  Shift from bullish to NEUTRAL: In a 1.3320/1.3510 range.

The drop back below the 1.3390 ‘stop-loss’ yesterday (low of 1.3370) indicates that the bullish phase that started late last week has ended. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and GBP is expected to trade sideways for now, even though the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 1.3320/1.3510 consolidation range.

AUD/USD: Neutral (since 24 Nov 17, 0.7625): In a 0.7530/0.7650 range.

AUD edged above the top of our expected 0.7530/0.7650 consolidation range and touched a high of 0.7654 yesterday. The rapid and sharp pull-back from the high suggests that AUD is not ready to move into a bullish phase just yet. From here, further range trading between 0.7530 and 0.7650 is expected and only a clear break above 0.7650 (say a NY close above this level) would indicate the start of a sustained up-move.

NZD/USD: Neutral (since 23 Nov 17, 0.6880): In a 0.6815/0.6935 range. No change in view.


There is not much to add as NZD traded in a quiet manner and registered an ‘inside day’. The outlook remains neutral for now and NZD is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 0.6815/0.6935 range. Looking further ahead, a break of 0.6935 could signal the start of a stronger recovery towards last month’s peak near 0.6980.

USD/JPY:  Neutral (since 30 Nov 17, 112.00): USD to stay underpinned as long as above 111.30. No change in view


USD touched a high of 113.08 yesterday, holding below the strong resistance highlighted at 113.15 in recent updates. Despite the pullback from the high, the undertone is still positive but as indicated previously, only a clear break above 113.15 would suggest a stronger recovery towards 113.70 has started. Overall, USD is expected to stay underpinned as long as the key short-term support at 111.30 is intact.

Source: United Overseas Bank Global Economics & Markets Research