• AUD/USD sits +5.5% ytd with RBA meeting & critical U.S. CPI looming large

• Pundits expect 25 bps easing from RBA monetary policy meeting 0430 GMT Tue

• U.S. Jul core CPI also due Tue, Reuters poll: +0.3% m/m, +3.0% y/y

• Pair well above 0.6387 200-DMA & trending up, next target 2025 0.6625 high

• Trump's Fed appointments adding to dovish Fed sentiment, weighing on USD

• Range early Asia 0.6515-215, support 0.6420 0.6373, resistance 0.6625 0.6687
AUD Daily 200-DMA & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• +0.05% after closing -0.2% with the U.S. dollar +0.2% with higher UST yields

• Zelenskiy wins EU, NATO backing as he seeks a place at Trump-Putin talks

• US VP Vance says any Ukraine peace deal is unlikely to satisfy either side

• There is no first-tier EU or US data today, so range trading looks likely

• Charts - neutral daily momentum studies - 21-day Bollinger bands contract

• 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages conflict - daily signals show a neutral setup

• Resistance starts at the July 1.1789 range top, then 1.1830 2025 high

• Last week's 1.1528 low, then last Friday's 1.1392 base, are first support

• 1.16001.157 BLN, 1.1650 851 mln and 1.1690/00 2.685 BLN close Aug 11 strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY starts the week on a cautious note after closing 0.4% higher Friday

• Upside limited as weakening U.S. economic data raises rate cut expectations

• U.S. CPI Tue, key for Fed expectations; Bowman sees 3 rate cuts this year

• Fed now faces risks to both its inflation and jobs goals; Fed's Musalem

• Trump policy or tariff news, Trump-Putin meeting Friday key this week

• Japanese markets closed for a holiday Mon; Friday range 146.73-147.90

• Resistance 148.10-20, support 147.20, 146.70-75
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD steady early Mon in subdued trade, focus moves to RBA rate decision

• RBA monetary policy meeting outcome 0430 GMT Tue; markets expect 25 bps cut

• Pair holding above 0.6511 55-DMA, needs momentum to target 2025 0.6625 high

• Trump's Fed appointments adding to dovish Fed sentiment, weighing on USD

• Critical U.S. Jul core CPI due Tue, Reuters poll: +0.3% m/m, +3.0% y/y

• Overnight range Fri 0.65145-35, support 0.6420 0.6373, resistance 0.6625
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1635 after EUR/USD fell 1.1678-1.1630 on EBS due to U$ buying

• US buying abated for the most part & gold rallied off its session low

• EUR/USD rallied toward 1.1670, pair sat near 1.1661 late, down only -0.04%

• EUR/JPY rally above 172.20 & equity gains also helped to lift EUR/USD towards flat

• Techs lean bullish; monthly RSI rising, pair above daily cloud & slew of daily MAs

• Daily, monthly charts show EUR/UDS consolidating gains, adds to bullish signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6525 after AUD/USD traded 0.6513-0.6535 overnight

• Pair dipped below 0.6515 early then rallied above 0.6525 into Europe's close

• AUD/USD pulled back a bit and sat near 0.6525 in Ny's afternoon, traded up +0.02%

• US yield & USD/CNH gains helped to limit AUD/USD's topside

• AUD/JPY rally, equity gains & gold bounce off the low limited the downside

• Techs lean bullish; daily, monthly charts show AUD/USD is in consolidation phases

• Rising monthly RSI, AUD/USD's hold above daily cloud, slew of DMAs reinfroce bull signs
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD flat during U.S. session at 1.3445; range 1.3418/54

• Pair holds bulk of post-BoE rally; softer USD undertone persists

• Little resistance until 1.3503 (55DMA), 1.3585 (Jul 23/24 highs)

• Bulls resilient for now, but downside GBP risks remain

• Support at 1.3375 (BoE reaction level), break would open door to 1.33

• UK jobs data (Aug 12), UK GDP (Aug 14), U.S CPI (Aug 12)
GBPUSD daily chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole’s FAST FX model shows a rise in USD/JPY’s short-term fair value from 144.51 to 145.51 this week, driven primarily by gains in Japanese equities and a slight rebound in rate differentials. However, despite this uptick, the pair is now trading above fair value and would be significantly overvalued near 150.

Key Points:

Fair Value Revision Higher:
USD/JPY’s short-term fair value increased by 100 pips to 145.51 in preliminary estimates, with the final figure due at the New York close. The move reflects shifts in key macro drivers.

Drivers of the Fair Value Move:
A rally in the Nikkei provided the largest boost to USD/JPY fair value, outweighing the marginal increase in US-Japan rate spreads. Lower energy prices exerted a mild drag on the fair value estimate.

Rates Spread Edge Higher Despite Soft Data:
Even with weaker US economic data and the dovish implications of Miran’s Fed nomination, the short-term rate differential ticked up slightly, helping support USD/JPY.

Valuation Signals Emerging Overstretch:
At current levels, USD/JPY is seen as modestly overvalued. A further rally back toward 150 would place the pair in clearly overvalued territory based on Credit Agricole’s model.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole notes that while fundamentals have pushed USD/JPY’s fair value modestly higher, the spot rate is now exceeding that estimate. The pair’s upside appears stretched, and a return toward 150 would represent a significant dislocation from short-term fair value.

(Updates)

• Shares of copper miners rise, tracking prices of the red metal

• Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange up 0.2% at $9,700 a metric ton

• Copper prices crept higher for a third consecutive session, bolstered by hopes of U.S. interest rate cuts after a central bank appointment and upbeat economic data in China

• U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday announced his pick to fill a vacant seat at the Federal Reserve, boosting hopes of interest rate cuts and weakening the dollar [FRX/]

• A softer dollar makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency less expensive for buyers using other currencies

• U.S.-listed shares of global mining giants Rio Tinto

up 1.6% and BHP Group up 1.4%

• Copper miners Southern Copper up ~3% and Freeport-McMoRan up 2.7%

• Canadian miners Hudbay Minerals up ~3%, Ero Copper up 1.8% and Teck Resources up 1.3%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

Synopsis:

MUFG interprets the Bank of England’s August rate cut to 4.00% as a hawkish outcome, marked by a deeply divided Monetary Policy Committee and a deteriorating macro backdrop. While the policy direction remains toward easing, the path forward is clouded by sticky inflation, muted growth, and political uncertainty.

Key Points:

Narrow Vote Highlights MPC Division:
The 5-4 vote split underscores the fragile consensus within the BoE. Hawkish members were bolstered by concerns over upside risks to inflation expectations, particularly from energy and food.

Stagflation Signals Mounting:
Updated BoE projections revealed a troubling mix of higher inflation and weak growth—a stagflationary setup that complicates the easing narrative and explains the internal policy discord.

Direction Is Still Lower, but Pace Uncertain:
MUFG maintains a dovish bias on UK rates but sees the timeline for further cuts as increasingly data-dependent. Labour market slack and subdued growth will be key to unlocking another cut, likely in November.

Terminal Rate Forecast Unchanged:
MUFG continues to expect the Bank Rate to fall to 3.25% in 2025, though recent developments suggest a more gradual easing path than previously anticipated.

Conclusion:

MUFG sees the BoE’s August meeting as a hawkish cut within a difficult macro environment. Stagflation risks, policy division, and fiscal uncertainty mean rate cuts are still likely—but the pace will be slower and more cautious than markets had hoped.

• GBP/USD has traded a 34 pip range thus far Friday; 1.3418-1.3452

• 1.3452 is two-week high (1.3143 was 12-week low on Aug 1, pre-NFP data)

• Cable was sub-1.34 before BoE's hawkish rate cut boosted pound on Thursday

• BoE's Pill (hawk) sees risks that could slow pace of rate cuts

• UK jobs, Q2 GDP data due next week. UK July inflation data due August 20

• BoE sees UK CPI, which hit 3.6% YY in June, peaking at 4% in September

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Bank of America's latest FX and Rates Sentiment Survey shows short USD still ranks as the highest conviction trade for the remainder of 2025, tied with long rates. This conviction is grounded in expectations of waning US exceptionalism, Fed independence concerns, and fiscal deterioration. However, growing unease over global growth could challenge this consensus.

Key Points:

Short USD Still Dominates Conviction Rankings:
Survey participants continue to favor short USD as the most compelling trade into year-end, reflecting macro themes around fading US outperformance, structural fiscal concerns, and perceived risks to central bank credibility.

Fed Independence and Fiscal Policy in Focus:
Persistent concerns over political interference at the Fed and deteriorating fiscal discipline are driving broader demand for FX hedging and fueling short USD sentiment, despite lighter positioning levels.

EUR Sentiment Resilient but Not Euphoric:
EUR bullishness remains intact, even as respondents express skepticism about any large-scale EU investment push or fiscal acceleration. Expectations are low, leaving room for upside surprises—but also little conviction behind aggressive EUR long positions.

Cautious Undercurrents Emerging:
The rise of long rates and short risk as top conviction trades reflects building concern over a global growth slowdown. With 37% of respondents viewing long risk as the most crowded trade, there's growing hedging interest against downside scenarios.

Conclusion:

BofA finds that short USD continues to anchor investor conviction into year-end, driven by fundamental and structural US concerns. However, the increasing appeal of defensive trades like long rates and short risk suggests sentiment may be shifting cautiously—particularly if global growth decelerates meaningfully.

Synopsis:

ANZ expects the RBA to deliver a 25bp rate cut at its August meeting, with market pricing already fully reflecting this. Given AUD/USD's recent rebound and heavy net short positioning, ANZ warns the pair remains fragile heading into a data-heavy week, especially if Governor Bullock strikes a more dovish-than-expected tone or if global risks resurface.

Key Points:

RBA Set to Cut, But Forward Guidance Key:
ANZ expects a 25bp cut on Tuesday, with a follow-up move likely in November. While the easing cycle is confirmed, the pace remains uncertain. The market reaction will hinge on post-meeting communication and Governor Bullock's tone.

Dovish Risks to AUD/USD:
If the RBA acknowledges softer Q2 CPI or weak labor data, ANZ sees potential for AUD/USD to decline further. The pair rallied after July’s surprise hold, but a more dovish posture this time could reverse recent gains.

Global Headwinds Loom Larger:
US CPI strength or renewed trade tensions—particularly tied to the 12 August US-China tariff deadline—pose external risks for the AUD. ANZ notes these global dynamics may overshadow domestic policy decisions in influencing AUD/USD.

Positioning Skews to Downside Risk:
CFTC data shows AUD/USD net shorts near April highs at 105k contracts, suggesting crowding risk. While softer US data spurred recent net buying, ANZ sees potential for a near-term reversal.

Conclusion:

ANZ maintains a cautious stance on AUD/USD ahead of the RBA. With the cut fully priced and risks skewed to a more dovish tone and fragile global sentiment, the pair remains vulnerable to near-term downside—particularly if external shocks or central bank guidance disappoint.

• EUR/CHF stalls at resistance (0.9430), but downside remains limited for now

• With 39% tariffs on Swiss exports there is little appetite to fade the move

• Though despite the break above the 200DMAs, familiar hurdles continue to cap

• Support sits at 0.9387/0.9400, further support at 0.9345/50

• Should EUR/CHF close above 0.9430/50 this would open the door to 0.95
EURCHF daily chart

(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• FX realised volatility has receded and dragged implied volatility lower

• However, EUR/USD options are more resilient than most other G10 pairings

• 1-month implied vol reached 8.1 from 7.0 after 1 August U.S jobs data

• So far its only managed a setback to 7.7, with other dates underpinned, too

• Risk reversals increased USD put over call (topside) strike premiums

• They remain firm as dealers don't dismiss risk of further spot and vol gains

• Implied vol setbacks offer attractive reward vs risk before key events

• Big expiries Friday and next week can impact FX amid low realised volatility
EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals


EUR/USD FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects to add dropped word 'premarket' in first bullet)

• U.S-listed shares of gold miners rise premarket, tracking gain in bullion [GOL/]

• December U.S. gold futures surge 1% to $3,489.40 after hitting record $3,534.10

• Rally driven by reports of Washington tariffs on 1kg bullion bar imports, widening NY futures-spot spread

• Top miners gain - Newmont up 1.4% and Barrick Mining rise 1.1%

• South African miners Gold Fields , AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold rise between 1% and 1.3%

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines and Kinross Gold up about 1% each

(Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru)

The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes may bolster any nearby support and resistance levels, and potentially have a magnetic effect on FX price action towards each day's 10 a.m. New York (1400 GMT) cut expiry. It is therefore advantageous to know in advance where the larger strikes lie.
EUR/USD FX Option Expiries – Week of August 11–15
Date Strike(s) Notional Size ------------------------------------------------------------ Monday, Aug 11 1.1500 €1.7 bln

1.1600 €1.1 bln

1.1650 €721 mln

1.1690–1.1700 €2.1 bln

1.1750 €1.1 bln

1.1800 €2.7 bln ------------------------------------------------------------ Tuesday, Aug 12 1.1500 €2.3 bln

1.1545 €1.4 bln

1.1575 €900 mln

1.1650 €1.1 bln

1.1730 €409 mln ------------------------------------------------------------ Wednesday, Aug 13 1.1500 €2.3 bln

1.1560–1.1570 €1.0 bln

1.1600 €931 mln

1.1630 €500 mln

1.1650 €600 mln

1.1700–1.1705 €1.7 bln ------------------------------------------------------------ Thursday, Aug 14 1.1500 €4.9 bln

1.1585 €565 mln

1.1600 €1.1 bln

1.1625–1.1630 €1.3 bln

1.1645–1.1650 €1.7 bln

1.1660 €1.0 bln

1.1695–1.1700 €4.8 bln

1.1710–1.1715 €1.7 bln

1.1750 €862 mln

1.1800 €1.3 bln ------------------------------------------------------------ Friday, Aug 15 1.1590–1.1605 €1.1 bln

1.1650 €820 mln

1.1700 €450 mln

1.1850 €1.1 bln ------------------------------------------------------------

Related -

Long EUR/USD profits booked but FX options stay the course (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• CITI FX one of many booking profits on pre NFP EUR/USD long positions

• Profit taking helps stem latest USD slide at 1.1699 vs EUR on Thursday

• EUR/USD trades a tight 1.1678-40 range on Friday, with little to excite FX

• The cash hedging of larger FX option strike expiries nearby may dominate

• FX options have been buying more USD puts with EUR/USD preferred vehicle

• That's reflected by risk reversals and their growing premium for topside

• Longer dates favoured - 1 year risk reversals test 5-year high from May
EUR=EBS


EUR/USD 25 delta risk reversals

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/3-pm London Wednesday August 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1550 (1.2BLN), 1.1600 (1.5BLN), 1.1650-60 (1.6BLN)

• 1.1670-75 (343M), 1.1685 (400M), 1.1700 (2.1BLN)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8675 (1.8BLN), 0.8700 (1.4BLN)

• GBP/USD: 1.3400 (210M), 1.3450 (265M), 1.3500 (257M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6500 (4.7BLN), 0.6560-65 (397M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3700 (502M), 1.3750 (867M), 1.3775 (695M), 1.3800 (471M)

• USD/JPY: 146.50 (282M), 147.00 (315M), 147.40-45 (414M), 147.70-75 (600M)

• FX options wrap - Nerves on show as USD drop resumes (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of copper miner Sandfire Resources rise as much as 1.9% to A$11.560, their highest level since July 8, set for weekly boost of 2.9%

• Copper prices rose on Friday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of better China demand [MET/L]

• The broader Aussie mining sub-index is up 1.5% meanwhile

• YTD, shares up 24%

(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• Shares of gold miner Capricorn Metals rise as much as 1.6% to A$9.950

• U.S. gold futures for December delivery hit an all-time high of $3,534.10 following a report that the United States has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars [GOL/]

• Spot gold hit its highest since July 23

• Meanwhile, Jarden trims price target to A$9.64 from A$9.75, maintains 'overweight' rating on the stock

• Says marginal PT cut due to timing rather than fundamental changes, also sees lower FY27 production at Mt Gibson Gold Project (MGGP)

• Retains 'overweight' rating on upbeat gold prices and FY26 production expectations in the near term, and on likelihood of further mine plan optimization (underground inclusion) at MGGP

• 7 analysts rated 'buy' on avg; median PT is A$10.05, per LSEG-compiled data

(Reporting by Nichiket Sunil in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY off to 146.73 early Tokyo before rallying to 147.35

• Japanese importer Tokyo fix demand tipped ahead of the long-weekend

• Importers still have lots to do after 150.00 option barriers knocked-out

• Word on street is that importers are in almost everyday, especially on dips

• With Tokyo fix over, upside may be limited for now

• Resistance still at top of 147.25-38 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Related comment also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD -0.2% from Fri's 0.6528 high in quiet trading ahead of weekend

• Pair just above 0.6511 55-DMA, requires catalyst to reach 2025 0.6625 high

• Focus moves to RBA monetary policy meeting Tue; markets expect 25 bps cut

• Stephen Miran gets Fed seat, will provide Trump with increased Fed influence

• DXY below 98.29 55-DMA; new 'reciprocal' U.S. tariffs now in effect

• Range Asia 0.65125-28, support 0.6420 0.6373, resistance 0.6625 0.66875
DXY Daily 55-DMA


AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY down towards base of recent 146.62-148.07 range since Tuesday

• Asia so far 146.76-147.04 EBS as market heads into Japan's long weekend

• Risk down but likely limited with little in way of market-moving news

• JGB-US Treasury rate differentials up a tad but downtrend seen continuing

• This especially with Trump ally/CEA Miran appointed to Fed board

• Interest rate differential in 10s @275 bps, in 2s @294 bps TradeWeb

• USD/JPY now well below 147.25-37 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Holding above 146.70 low yesterday, 146.62 low Tuesday

• Breaks target base of wider range defined by 100/200-DMAs, 100-DMA 145.64

• Option expiries today 146.00 $823 mln, 146.90-147.00 total $408 mln

• Also 147.35-55 total $599 mln, 147.70-75 total $599 mln

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on Stephen Miran ,

• US markets , , ,

• On US data , US tariffs , on BOJ
USD/JPY:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)